Germany’s socio-technical land use potential for sustainable food and energy production: An analysis based on technology assessment and socio-technical modeling

  • Project team:

    Adão Roussado, Ana Rita (Dissertation)

  • Funding:

    Climate, Resources, and Circular Economy – Interrelations, Synergies, and Tradeoffs (KLIREC)

  • Start date:

    2024

  • End date:

    2027

  • Research group:

    Sustainable Bioeconomy

Project description

Germany’s sustainability goals of transitioning agricultural and energy production and increasing organic farming to 30% of agricultural land by 2030 and the share of renewable energies in electricity production to 100% by 2045 present a grand challenge in view of the increasing competition for land use. Despite the socio-technical successes achieved so far, climate change is already noticeable, and its consequences will become more apparent in the future. This is particularly true for food production, which mainly takes place in the field and is highly dependent on climate and weather conditions. On the other hand, the agricultural sector also significantly contributes to climate change with its greenhouse gas emissions. It is therefore essential to switch to more sustainable practices such as organic farming, regenerative and conservative agriculture. This will lead to higher specific land requirements for food production, as organic farming yields are generally lower than in conventional farming.

Agrivoltaics allows for the simultaneous production of food and energy while providing shelter and shading for the crops. Shading leads to increased yields for some plant species, and the dual use results in greater land use efficiency. The results from previous technology assessments (TAs) on agrivoltaics show that despite the technical feasibility and its potential contribution to climate-friendly power production, public opposition can be an obstacle to their use. Therefore, it is important to include socio-technical criteria when modeling the potential of this technology.

An important social innovation in this context is the change in eating habits toward a lower-meat and more climate-neutral diet. Consumers are increasingly aware of the links between food production and climate change and are becoming more educated on how they can contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions through their diet. Younger generations in particular are noticeably shifting their dietary preferences toward a more plant-based diet, which typically implies less land use than the traditional German diet.

Against this background, the PhD will, for the first time, combine the evaluation of technical and social strategies based on TA and social science methods with a geographic information system (GIS) to assess and map Germany’s socio-technical potential for sustainable food and energy production. The aim is to investigate how technical and social developments, in particular, agrivoltaics and dietary shifts, can affect this potential. To this end, a spatial socio-technical model for food and energy production in Germany will be developed and applied to assess stakeholder scenarios by using anticipatory and integrative TA methods. This process will be based on techno-economic, environmental, and social criteria, which will be developed using participatory methods before being integrated into the GIS model. Among other things, qualitative and quantitative variables for new technologies, e.g., agrivoltaics, as well as changes in diets and the knowledge and views of stakeholders will be included. The assessment results will be used to derive recommendations for policymakers to promote sustainable land use for food and renewable energy production. This research thus aspires to contribute to the scientific understanding of the land use relationships between food and energy production, while offering recommendations for policymakers seeking sustainable solutions for land use competition.

Administrative data

Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Armin Grunwald
Advisor: Dr. Christine Rösch
Doctoral students at ITAS: see Doctoral studies at ITAS

Contact

Ana Rita Adão Roussado, M.Sc.
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS)
P.O. Box 3640
76021 Karlsruhe
Germany

Tel.: +49 721 608-22195
E-mail