Analysis on the interpretation of energy scenarios

Energy scenarios play an important role in the current energy-political debate about the transformation of the energy system. They are supposed to support decision-making and provide orientation for the debate in general. However, their large number, heterogeneity, and partial lack in transparency regarding the assumptions and models on which they are based make it difficult to understand and use them properly.

Against this background, the German-language analysis "Zur Interpretation von Energieszenarien" (On the interpretation of energy scenarios) provides assistance in understanding and interpreting energy scenario studies. In the first part of this publication, terminological and methodological principles are defined. The authors explain for example what it actually means that energy scenarios describe “possible” developments and what this implies for their justification.

In the second part they elaborate on important functions of energy scenarios and explain which conditions have to be fulfilled to that end. The authors discuss, inter alia, the identification of so-called “robust” developments or measures by comparing different scenarios.

The analysis was written by the interdisciplinary working group "Szenarien" (scenarios) in the project "Future Energy Systems" of the German Academies of Science. This group studies the possibilities and limits of using energy scenarios in societal discourse and political decision-making. It is headed by Armin Grunwald and coordinated by Christian Dieckhoff. (11.03.2015)

Bibliographic details:

Dieckhoff, Chr.; Appelrath, H.-J.; Fischedick, M.; Grunwald, A.; Höffler, F.; Mayer, C.; Weimer-Jehle, W. (Hg.)
Zur Interpretation von Energieszenarien. München: acatech -– Deutsche Akademie der Technikwissenschaften e. V. 2014
(Schriftenreihe Energiesysteme der Zukunft)
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